Politics in Osun State has always had drama, music, and surprises. But if there’s one name that has come to define resilience in the state, it’s Senator Ademola Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke, “The Dancing Senator,” “The Catfish,” and for many supporters, the man with “nine lives.”
As Osun people head to the polls on *August 15*, the question on everyone’s lips is simple: can Adeleke do it again? Based on political groundwork, incumbency advantages, grassroots structure, and the mood in the state, the signs point to yes. Here’s how the Accord Party candidate and sitting governor is positioning himself for victory.
1. *The Power of Incumbency and First-Term Record*
Adeleke is not coming as an outsider this time. He’s the sitting governor, and that matters a lot in Nigerian elections.
In his first term, his administration pushed what he called a “5-Point Agenda”: welfare of workers and pensioners, boosting the state economy, home-grown infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Whether you agree with all of it or not, voters feel the difference in a few areas:
– *Workers’ welfare*: Payment of salary arrears and pensions became a major talking point. Civil servants and retirees, who are a huge voting bloc in Osun, have seen regular payments compared to past years.
– *Infrastructure*: Road projects in Osogbo, Ede, Ilesa, and other towns were commissioned. While critics say more is needed, supporters point to visible projects as proof of “talk and do.”
– *Imole Youth Empowerment*: Programs targeted at youth employment and skills gave him a foothold with first-time voters and undergraduates.
Incumbency gives him access to state resources, visibility, and the ability to commission projects close to the election. That is classic political advantage, and Adeleke’s team is using it.
1. *“The Catfish Nine Lives” Brand: Survival and Connection*
Why “catfish”? Why “nine lives”?
In Yoruba political slang, a catfish is slippery. You think you’ve caught it, and it wriggles out. Adeleke earned the nickname after 2018 and 2022. In 2018, the election was declared inconclusive. In 2022, many wrote him off, but he won decisively.
That narrative of “they tried to stop him but he survived” resonates deeply. To many Osun voters, it’s not just about Accord vs. APC. It’s about “our son” who is doing well and giving dividends of democracy and should be voted to come back.
His style helps too. The dance, the “Imole” light symbol, the simple language. He doesn’t sound like a grammar professor. He sounds like your uncle at the party. In a state where politics is personal, relatability wins votes. People feel he’s one of them.
1. *Grassroots Structure and Accord Mobilization*
Elections in Osun are won at the ward and unit level. Adeleke’s Accord has spent the last 3 years rebuilding from the bottom up.
– *Ward to ward tours*: Commissioners and appointees have been posted across the 30 LGAs to monitor projects and listen to complaints.
– *Traditional rulers*: The Adeleke family name carries weight in Ede, and the governor has invested time in consulting Obas across the state. Royal backing doesn’t guarantee votes, but it reduces friction.
– *Women and market groups*: Osun market women are a powerful force. The administration’s small grants and support programs for traders are being amplified now.
The Accord party should also be learned from 2022: early mobilization, agents at every polling unit, and voter education on BVAS and the new electoral law. The party is telling people, “Your vote will count. Come out early.”
1. *The August 15 Demographics: Who Adeleke Is Targeting*
To win August 15, Adeleke needs 3 key groups:
*A. Civil Servants and Pensioners*
Osun has one of the largest public service populations in the Southwest. If salaries and pensions are paid up to July/August, that goodwill converts to votes. The “we suffered before, now it’s better” message is direct.
*B. Youth and First-Time Voters*
With student populations in OAU, UNIOSUN, Osun State Poly, and others, youth votes matter. The “Imole” brand, sports initiatives, and entertainment appeal position Adeleke as the “young at heart” candidate. His dance videos still trend. That’s free campaign.
*C. Rural Voters in Ede, Iwo, Ilesa, Ikirun, and Osogbo axis*
These are high-density voting areas. The Accord strategy is simple: flood them with projects, empower local leaders, and make election day logistics seamless. If turnout is high in Accord strongholds, the math gets difficult for the opposition.
1. *Opposition Dynamics and Potential Pitfalls*
No election is won in a vacuum. The APC and other parties will campaign hard.
What works for Adeleke is if the opposition is divided or if the campaign becomes about personality instead of policy. If the election turns into “Do you want continuity or change?”, incumbents usually win in Osun when the economy isn’t in total crisis.
The risk for Adeleke is voter apathy. If people think “he will win anyway”, or fear of intimidation and stay home, that’s how upsets happen. That’s why the “nine lives” messaging is important, it creates urgency. “Don’t let them take it from us again. Come out.”
Security will also be key. With BVAS and IReV, the 2025-2026 elections are expected to be more transparent than before. Adeleke’s campaign is already telling supporters to defend their votes peacefully and stay to watch results at polling units.
1. *The Narrative: From “Dancing Senator” to “Governor of the People”*
In 2018, people laughed at the dance. In 2022, they voted for it. In 2026, the pitch is different: “We laughed, we danced, and now we’re working.”
That’s the story his team is selling. The catfish survived the hook in 2018. It survived the net in 2022. Now it’s in the river, growing bigger. The August 15 election is framed as a referendum on whether Osun wants to “complete the Imole agenda.”
That message simplifies the choice for voters who are tired of complex policy papers. “More roads, more salary, more light” is easier to remember than a 20-point manifesto.
1. *Election Day Strategy: How the Win Happens*
Based on past Osun elections, here’s the likely playbook:
1. *Early turnout*: Accord agents will push for voters to come out before 10am. Early votes reduce room for manipulation.
2. *Protection of votes*: With BVAS, the focus is on making sure votes are uploaded. Party leaders are training agents on this.
3. *Message discipline*: “Don’t fight. Vote and wait.” The campaign knows violence hurts the incumbent.
4. *Last-minute projects*: Commissioning of roads, health centers, and cash transfers in July will dominate the news cycle going into August.
If Adeleke gets 50-65% turnout in Osogbo, Ede, Ilesa, and Iwo, and holds his own in APC-leaning areas, the numbers will favor him.
Conclusion: Why the Catfish Still Has Lives Left
Osun politics is emotional. People vote for who they know, who they’ve seen, and who they believe will remember them.
Ademola Adeleke has turned perceived weaknesses into strengths. The “dancing” became branding. The “outsider” became “son of the soil.” The “underdog” became “incumbent with nine lives.”
On August 15, he will ask voters for 4 more years to “finish the work.” With incumbency, a rebuilt party structure, goodwill among workers, and a brand that people can sing and dance to, he enters the race as the man to beat.
Will he win? Politics has no guarantees. But if the current signs hold, if the structure turns out, if the message lands, and if the election is free and fair, the catfish may just wriggle out again.
After all, that’s what catfish with nine lives do.
